Coming Week: Top Nine Earnings on Deck
Below, I look at each one of these nine stocks, broken into three lists: Those reporting before the open, during the session and after the close.
Reporting Before the OpenCiena
Expectations: Wall Street is expecting Ciena to report a loss of 14 cents a share, an improvement of 58% from a year ago, when it reported a loss of 33 cents a share.
Five analysts follow Ciena with a high estimate of -9 cents to a low estimate of -22 cents a share. Ciena has missed or met estimates three of the last five quarters, with misses in the last two.
Revenue is projected to grow 7% year-over-year to reach $447 million. Looking at the chart, Ciena has entered into oversold territory and is due for a bounce. Unfortunately, $13.50 presents strong resistance. Ciena is a short-squeeze possibility, as more than 20% of the float is shorted.
Analysts' average estimate is $1.95 per share, based on a range of $1.82 to $2.06 per share -- $1.95 is an improvement of 60 cents for the same period last year.
Revenue is expected to be $1.43 billion for the quarter, handily surpassing $1.06 billion from the same period last year. Revenue estimates range from $1.32 billion to $1.5 billion.
Trading at a price-to-earnings multiple under 10, with growing top and bottom lines, the chart should look better. Trading near 52-week lows, shares in JOY are falling victim to China's slowdown. Forward guidance is the most important metric for investors in the next earnings release.
During Trading HoursFocus Media ADR
Focus Media is expected to earn 43 cents a share, $190.6 million in revenue.
The company is the subject of critical analysts' comments from Muddy Waters Research allegedly the production of fraudulent financial documents. (See my remarks on Yingli Green Energy, below.)
Analysts are expecting a drop of 3 cents in earnings per share compared to the same period last year. The range of estimates is from 30 cents to 36 cents a share.
Revenue is projected to remain flat at $2.69 billion. Estimates range from a low of $2.63 billion to a high of $2.77 billion.
Investor money is flowing out of SAIC, with new 52-week lows recently. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is now under 8. This could spell a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Analysts are expecting an increase of 9 cents in EPS compared to last quarter's results of 13 cents a share, down 43 cents from the same period a year ago. The range of estimates is from 18 cents to 27 cents a share. Estimates are based on 10 analysts.
Revenue is a real problem, with a projected 20% fall, comparing year-over-year quarters. Average estimate is for $205.3 million. Estimates range from $198.2 million to $211 million.
Although recently breaking through the 200-day moving average, OmniVision appears poised to retest the lows from January.
Analysts expect the company to report a loss of 19 cents per share based on revenue of $448.9 million.
It's difficult to imagine how or why analysts' estimates or reported numbers are taken seriously. Please read my latest risk assessment on Chinese stocks.
In a nutshell, the SEC is currently suing at least one auditor in an attempt to uncover potential fraud. So far the SEC has been unsuccessful in their quest. We don't know if YGE or Focus Media, mentioned above, are reporting truthfully or not, and until we do, I recommend avoiding the additional risk.
Ascena Retail Group
The average analyst estimate is 36 cents per share, an improvement of 3 cents over the same period last year. Estimates range from 35 cents to 39 cents.
Revenue is expected to grow at almost 9% compared to $722.8 million in the same period last year. The average revenue estimate is $786.7 million, with a range of $774.5 million to $803.5 million.
The chart has a bearish bias, although the 200-day moving average is still climbing. Recent support from the 60-day and 90-day moving averages broke and retested, resulting in $17 as the next price support level.
Lions Gate Entertainment
Wall Street is expecting 26 cents per share based on a range of 7 cents to 87 cents. During the same period last year, the company produced 33 cents; last quarter's results were 9 cents.
A revenue consensus is equally as difficult to achieve, with a range of $452.6 million up to $759 million. Based on the wide range of estimates, the average estimate is $618.8 million.
Wall Street is expecting a loss of 15 cents per share on $54.9 million in revenue. Earnings estimates range from a loss of 19 cents to a loss of 12 cents. Analysts expect revenue growth of over 40%, but the company will also need to improve margins.
TiVo is incredibly speculative with its sleepless night 2.2 beta. Investing in TiVo is not for the faint of heart. With about 10% of the float short, TiVo is a short-squeeze possibility.